2024 NFL Draft: J.J. McCarthy Has Become The Engine For Michigan
But, the final exam for his 2024 NFL Draft stock awaits.
J.J. McCarthy has been waiting for this moment.
The Michigan Wolverines struggled to win “The Game” for a long time, and finally broke through in 2021, downing the Buckeyes 42-27. It wasn’t McCarthy who led the Wolverines into battle that day, but Cade McNamara, who played efficient ball at QB, and Hassan Haskins, who scored five times. They did it the subsequent year, this time with McCarthy at quarterback.
However, McCarthy has never really been the engine for Michigan. Last year, he completed 64.1% of his passes for 2,724 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. However, his 13 turnover-worthy plays were concerning, and six of those occurred in his last four games (Illinois(1), Ohio St(1), Purdue(2), TCU(2)).
The offense was heavily carried by running backs Blake Corum (1,461 yards, 18 TDs in ‘22) and Donovan Edwards(991 yards, 7 TDs), the latter of whom ran for 216 yards and two touchdowns against Ohio State last season. The defense also played lights out until the semifinal as well.
This isn’t to say that McCarthy didn’t have his big games last year. He threw for 304 yards and three touchdowns against Indiana, and had 10.5 yards per attempt against Ohio State, along with three touchdowns. But, he wasn’t the driver. He was the cart that the horse was pulling.
The 2023 season is a different one for McCarthy. The numbers don’t look insanely different on the surface. The 18 touchdowns and three INTs are an improvement, as is the decrease in turnover-worthy plays, down to five.
However, his YPA has jumped to 10.4 yards per attempt, and his completion percentage has jumped to 75.7%. His average depth of target (10.7 in ‘22, 10.6 in ‘23) has remained the same.
What that means is that he’s hitting more doubles and home runs in the passing game. In the intermediate area of the field (10-19 yards), his completion percentage has jumped from 58.5% (38/65) to 68.9% (42/61). On deep throws, McCarthy’s completion percentage has leapt from 39.3% (22/56) to 62.2% (23/37). His completion percentage against pressure has also jumped 10 points, per PFF.
Not to mention, the running game hasn’t been as effective. Edwards had 7.1 yards per carry last year, and he sits at 3.1 yards per carry this year. Corum’s hasn’t taken as much of a hit (5.9 down to 5.2), but it’s still down.
When we move off of numbers to the film, we definitely see a jump. McCarthy played even-keeled last year, executing the offense at a level that kept drives alive. He read things out quickly, got to the first read in ample time, and threw the ball accurately in the quick game. However, his play against pressure waned, he put the ball in harm’s way down the stretch, and struggled to generate plays down the field at a high clip. He got happy feet in the pocket, and his accuracy on the move was tough to watch.
The 2023 version of McCarthy on film looks impressive. He’s throwing with more anticipation, working through reads much more effectively, and finding the checkdown option with time for said checkdown to make a play. His recognition of coverage post-snap is leading to sustained drives.
The accuracy to the intermediate and deep areas of the field has improved. His ball placement and touch is getting better, and part of that could be from growing confidence. He’s ripping throws up the seam with wicked placement and confidence, leading to big-time plays. McCarthy is executing dagger concepts well and is throwing over the middle against zone even with closing linebackers. Because the process is quick enough to read out what’s in front of him, turnovers are avoided. On the deep ball, he’s throwing it on a line. Could there be more touch and air underneath it? Sure! But the accuracy improving is a big step.
The improved accuracy, placement, and confidence join an exciting group of traits McCarthy has always possessed. The arm talent is there, from impressive arm strength and velocity generated on his trows, to changing arm angles in the face of pressures, and throwing accurately on the move. His mobility offers a threat in the run game and the ability to get to the second play, the scramble to buy time. Not to mention, improving decision making, risk-averse play, and quicker processing speeds.
That isn’t to say everything is perfect with McCarthy. When there are spurts of accuracy issues, it starts with the footwork. Sometimes the base is too wide and he isn’t pointed at the target, whether it be the result of pressure or processing too quickly for the motor functions to catch up. He must still improve there to continue this rise.
McCarthy is acing many tests, including the ability to take over the offense without a strong running game. However, the final exam is about to begin. Keeping the production, improved accuracy and decision making, improved poise, and off-script skills all rolling against top competition will be key. The three toughest tests in the Big Ten remain on the schedule: Penn State (today), Maryland (arguable), and Ohio State. Penn State has a tough defense that won’t give up an inch. Maryland could require a shootout. Ohio State could be a slugfest as well. Then, a potential Big Ten title game against a tougher defense in Iowa. The playoff will likely see better defenses too or require a shootout to win.
J.J. McCarthy has done a great job becoming the horse, the engine of the Michigan offense. But, will the engine stall out against top competition? It’ll be exciting to find out. Penn State awaits.