The Rookie WR Report: Zay Flowers, Puka Nacua Shining, Get Jalin Hyatt The Ball
How has the 2023 NFL Draft WR class performed thus far?
Another year in the NFL brings about another rookie class waiting to shine. Jalen Carter has already found his stride with the Eagles, generating 11 pressures in two games. Will Anderson is looking great, as are rookie QBs C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. Bijan Robinson is Bijan Robinson.
As for the receivers, it’s been a mixed bag to this point. There have been some big time performances already, while others wait for targets and their breakout game. Let’s dive into the film and the numbers for the rookie receiver class through two weeks*.
*Three for Jalin Hyatt at the time of publishing.
Puka Nacua
33 targets, 25 receptions, 266 yards
Stat To Know: 69.2 percent of snaps on the boundary
I’m not sure many imagined that Puka Nacua would be in the offensive rookie of the year running through two weeks, let alone the headliner. Before the 2023 NFL Draft, analysts brought up Nacua as a possible sleeper in the class, with impressive production on a per-snap basis, along with a great set of traits, including his catch point prowess and run-after-catch ability.
Nacua landed in the right situation. Sean McVay got a player with great size, blocking skills, and a penchant for catching the ball.
What’s made Nacua so productive through two weeks is the quick rapport he’s generated with Matthew Stafford, along with how he’s thrived against zone coverage. The Rams have put plenty of WR stacks into their formations through two weeks, allowing little opportunity to get contacted early in the stem. Even so, Nacua has shown the ability to work through contact. He won on a slant route against Seattle versus press coverage. It needs work, but the foundation is there.
Nacua has run a lot of slants through the first two weeks, along with the deep curl/stop route. Even if the break isn’t efficient, he works back to the ball and has made some tough catches. Finding the soft spot against zone has allowed him to thrive through two weeks.
Nacua does a great job generating yards after the catch, immediately turning upfield as the ball arrives to attack for extra yardage.
What’s even crazier about the stat line through two weeks is that Nacua isn’t fully developed as a route runner. His through-break transitions need work, and he isn’t the best about selling everything as a vertical route. Body catching is something that could use some cleanup as well.
Still, thinking about the corner route he won against Seattle, keeping both feet in by the sideline, should show the upside with Nacua. And, as mentioned, he’s playing the majority of his snaps out wide. With Kupp returning to the slot soon, the duo could be dangerous for a suddenly competitive Rams squad.
Zay Flowers
15 targets, 13 catches, 140 yards
Stat To Know: 6.2 YAC/Rec
Zay Flowers might quickly ascend to the WR1 title in Baltimore, if he hasn’t already. He led the way in week one with nine catches for 78 yards, and was a yard short of leading the way in week two.
Flowers has exceptional quicks that can be utilized in the quick game, and Baltimore is leaning on that in certain spots. However, Flowers is running the big boy routes. From 7-stops, to deep outs and comebacks, Flowers has the route tree fully developed, and new offensive coordinator Todd Monken is taking advantage.
Flowers has the speed to stretch the field, and he utilizes his acceleration to sell everything vertically. Flowers can gear down and get out of his break in an instant with exceptional efficiency, and stays tight through the speed turn to create separation at the top.
Don’t forget about the work he can do at the catch point in terms of adjustments and walling off defenders by slowing his stride. He made a good catch on a deep ball from Lamar Jackson, ensuring leverage at the catch point and making a difficult grab at full speed.
After the catch, he’s a nightmare. He made multiple defenders miss in space on a couple occasions against Houston. Because he’s so explosive and has excellent throttle control, dropping his weight to change direction takes little time to do.
Because he excels in three phases, Flowers can take hold of the WR1 duties in Baltimore. It’s just a matter of time.
Jordan Addison
11 targets, 7 catches, 133 yards, 2 TDs
Stat To Know: 73.9% of snaps out wide
Jordan Addison hasn’t quite secured the WR2 spot in Minnesota just yet, at least according to snaps. K.J. Osborn is still involved in the offense he knows better at this point, and is clearly the better blocker of the two. However, Addison is the one making the big plays in the passing game.
A natural separator with a penchant for winning deep, Addison has done just that through two weeks. He’s won down the field for both of his touchdowns thus far, eating up cushion quickly against the Bucs and performing an acrobatic move through contact to score against Philly, one that looked familiar to a touchdown in his time at USC.
His quicks and efficient breaks are how he’s gaining separation on short and intermediate routes. There are some reps where he gets washed out by contact in the stem, something that a quicker and more diverse release package will help combat.
However, it’s clear why he hasn’t fully taken over as the WR2 just yet. There are times he isn’t on the same page as Kirk Cousins, leading to lost plays. The quicker he grasps the offense, the quicker we’ll see the uptick in production.
Nathaniel “Tank” Dell
14 targets, 10 catches, 106 yards, 1 TD
Stat To Know: 71.1% of snaps out wide
Yes, it was in a chasing game script, but slashing 7/72/1 against the Colts is still noteworthy for Tank Dell. A smaller WR prospect, Dell was extremely productive at Houston, but his size was the question entering the league.
He’s answered the bell so far, and making me look very wrong to this point.
Dell’s route running was his big selling point, and he’s made it look very easy to this point. Everything with Dell is vertical, and he doesn’t give indicators that he’s going to break, keeping his pad level down through break points. He gets up to speed quickly, yet has great control of his speed in his through-break transitions, keeping his break tight and losing no speed through his speed turns (speed cuts). Because he’s so sudden and so flexible, he generates gobs of separation at the break point.
Let’s not forget about the suddenness and elusiveness Dell has after the catch. He turns into a runner instantly, and can make the first defender miss at a great clip. Dell is playing plenty on the outside, and he’s making it difficult for defenders to get hands on him. His stock is soaring.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
10 targets, 8 catches, 47 yards
Stat To Know: 1.8 ADOT
It hasn’t been the start many were hoping for concerning Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Seattle drafted him at pick 20 to create an impressive trio at receiver, and help their woes over the middle of the field. Smith-Njigba was set to be the chain-mover.
Through two weeks, there shouldn’t be a lot of room for panic. Speed wasn’t his forte in college, and that hasn’t changed since entering the NFL. He’s still winning against man and zone coverage over the middle of the field, but he isn’t getting targeted there much yet. Instead, his targets have most often come near the line of scrimmage, giving him little chance to work with space after the catch. Geno Smith will eventually need to trust the middle of the field over the hero ball in key moments, and that’s where Smith-Njigba will thrive. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are very good and they’ve got the rapport already. Give it time.
Quentin Johnston
5 targets, 3 catches, 16 yards
Stat To Know: 12.2 ADOT
The early returns for Quentin Johnston haven’t been encouraging either. Another top-25 pick, Johnston was set to potentially create some space for the Chargers offense and be a deep/YAC threat. He’s run just 25 routes to this point, but they’re giving him chances to win over the middle of the field in addition to being the clearout man. He’s won deep on a couple occasions, but hasn’t been the first read. Catching the ball looks better at the moment, and so do the in-breaking routes.
The issue, like with Smith-Njigba, is that the room is pretty full. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are healthy, and Josh Palmer is key as a blocker in 11 personnel. He was inconsistent in college, so patience must be preached with Johnston as well.
Josh Downs
10 targets, 7 catches, 67 yards
Stat To Know: 4 1st Downs
Josh Downs was exactly who the Indianapolis Colts needed at wide receiver, and kudos to Chris Ballard for getting that value in the third round and giving Shane Steichen a key piece to the offense. He isn’t getting targeted at the level of Michael Pittman Jr. to this point, but it’s only a matter of time.
The slot receiver is key to Steichen’s offense, especially with a rookie quarterback. Giving Anthony Richardson an underneath separator to win against man coverage is crucial. Downs also has the straight line speed to earn targets deep, an ability to win the ball through contact, and dominate after the catch. He won a great slant route against Jacksonville, attacking the DB’s outside leverage and winning easily. When he does get targeted, he’s picking up first downs as well. The breakout is coming.
Rashee Rice
7 targets, 5 catches, 49 yards, 1 TD
Stat To Know: 2.72 yards per route run
Rashee Rice got off to a great start in the opener for the Chiefs, catching the touchdown after finding space against zone coverage (a specialty of his) and taking a short pass for 25 yards down the sideline. The route tree is very solid, and his ability to find space and create space against zone is what’s going to get him onto the field more often down the stretch.
Jonathan Mingo
13 targets, 5 catches, 43 yards
Stat To Know: 14.1 ADOT
The well-built speedster from Mississippi is getting plenty of snaps so far for the Carolina Panthers, who are desperate for someone to break out as a receiver in what’s been an anemic offense to this point.
Mingo’s involvement and success as a blocker has helped him stay on the field for most of the game, but he isn’t capitalizing on his targets. Now, some of those targets haven’t been favorable with rookie Bryce Young adjusting to the NFL. However, there have been a couple that he could’ve won through contact and did not.
The route tree has been expansive for Mingo so far. A great mix of in-breakers, out-breakers, crossers, gos, and even comebacks have been mixed in. It shows that the coaching staff trusts Mingo with any route. However, Mingo must work on the break point and not tipping his hand to create and sustain separation. It looks like he’s thinking a lot in his route and not playing free at full speed.
This was the concern with Mingo in college, as he’s a bit raw in the technical aspects of receiver, but had the physical traits to build upon to be successful. We’ll see how things look with Andy Dalton at quarterback this week.
Trey Palmer
5 targets, 3 catches, 28 yards, 1 TD
Stat To Know: 115.1 rating when targeted
Trey Palmer has been on the field plenty for a day three rookie (31 passing snaps so far), and he’s quickly gaining the trust of Baker Mayfield. With two studs in the building, climbing the depth chart isn’t easy. But, Palmer did score in his first game, and has the long speed to open up space in this offense.
Jayden Reed
11 targets, 6 catches, 85 yards, 2 TDs
Stat To Know: 65.8% of snaps in the slot
The Packers might have found their slot dynamo for the offense. With injuries to Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed has had to step up, and he certainly has to this point. Reed took on a heavy dose of routes against Chicago, and helped create chunk plays for the offense. His best route was a comeback route on third down, winning with great tempo and route break efficiency. Matt LaFleur dialed up two great plays for Reed against Atlanta, and he took advantage, scoring twice. He’s going to be effective for the Packers, and he’s building a great rapport with Jordan Love already.
Michael Wilson
8 targets, 5 catches, 75 yards
Stat To Know: 3.11 yards per route run in week 2
Michael Wilson has gone under the radar the past couple weeks, but his performance has outshined quite a few picked before him. Wilson is a smooth operator as a route runner, and despite some issues on vertical plane breaks, he’s creating separation and providing Josh Dobbs with a reliable target in the passing game.
Get Him The Ball!
This segment is for a pair of receivers on struggling offenses. The Denver Broncos haven’t necessarily struggled, but they haven’t quite got the rhythm down. Marvin Mims brought back vintage Russell Wilson on Sunday, catching two passes for 113 yards and a touchdown. Mims has the speed to win deep and open up the field for Denver, and his whopping 18.83 yards per route run should signal more is to come for the rookie receiver. Let Jerry Jeudy operate from 20 yards and shorter, and Mims deep down the field.
As for the Giants, it’s time to let loose on the reigns. Give Jalin Hyatt more opportunities. He tore through the Cardinals defense for a long gain to open the second half, and then elevated for a great contested win later in the game. He promptly wasn’t targeted on Thursday night. What are we doing??
Monitoring The Situation
There are a few more rookies to keep an eye on this week. Kayshon Boutte ran 45 routes against the Eagles in week one. They need some dynamic playmaker on their offense, besides fellow rookie Demario Douglas of course. Those two can break through to help Mac Jones. Cedric Tillman has just run nine routes, but with the passing offense struggling, it might be time. Dontayvion Wicks caught a touchdown and had a chance to come down with two other huge plays against Atlanta. He’s clearly going to be involved more. Rakim Jarrett is also getting some run in Tampa.